Poster Presentation Clinical Oncology Society of Australia Annual Scientific Meeting 2026

Projections of incidence and mortality for head and neck cancer by clinically relevant groups in Australia to 2044 (145185)

Qingwei Luo 1 , Rebecca Venchiarutti 2 , Dianne O’Connell 1 , Megan Smith 3 , Paul Grogan 3 , Michael David 1 , Jonathan Clark 2 , Karen Canfell 3
  1. The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, and Cancer Council NSW, New South Wales, Australia, Woolloomooloo, NSW, Australia
  2. Chris O’Brien Lifehouse, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  3. Cancer Elimination Collaboration, Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Aims

Head and neck cancer (HNC) is a diverse group of malignancies, each with unique aetiology, treatment paradigms, and outcomes. In this study, we aimed to examine the trends in incidence and mortality rates for 10 HNC site or subsite groups in Australia and to project these rates to 2044.

Methods

HNC is categorised into 10 groups based on aetiological and clinical characteristics: Human papilloma virus (HPV)-related oropharynx, non-HPV-related oropharynx, oral tongue, other oral cavity, lip, salivary glands, nasopharynx, larynx/hypopharynx, nasal cavity and paranasal sinus, and other HNCs. Joinpoint regression was used to examine the changes in HNC incidence and mortality rates in 1982-2019, and age-period-cohort models were fitted to project rates to 2044, using national data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Rates were age‐standardised to the Segi World standard population.

Results

Increases in incidence rates were observed for HPV-related oropharynx, non-HPV-related oropharynx, oral tongue, and salivary gland cancers. Incidence rates decreased for other oral cavity, lip, and larynx/hypopharynx cancers. Most of these trends are expected to continue to 2044, with the exception of HPV-related oropharynx which appears to have plateaued in the mid-2020s. HNC mortality rates for most groups decreased over 1982 to 2019, except for other HNCs. HNC mortality rates are expected to continue to decline or remain relatively stable from 2020 to 2044 across all groups. A total of 167,747 (117,248 males, 45,499 females) HNC diagnoses and 36,245 (26,767 males, 9,478 females) HNC deaths are projected over the 25-year period 2020-2044.

Conclusions

These findings fill an important gap in understanding the past trends and future burdens for HNC by clinically similar groupings, reflecting different aetiologies, treatment paradigms, and outcomes. These estimates can inform future priorities for research, interventions and service planning to reduce the burden of HNC.