Aims
Cancer prevalence is the number of people alive with a past cancer diagnosis in a specified number of previous years (e.g. last 5 or 30 years). Long-term projections of national cancer prevalence provide essential information for policy makers and for health service planning. This study estimates 1- to 30-year cancer prevalence in Australia for each year in 2025-2050, for 24 cancer types, and for all cancers combined.
Methods
We used validated methods to estimate prevalence as a function of incidence and survival, using tabulated data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and incorporating the effect of influential cancer-specific factors. The number of people living with cancer (cancers not yet cured) is estimated using the time-to-cure method.
Results
The 30-year prevalence is projected to increase by 57∙1% from 1,666,020 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,553,825 – 1,784,900) in 2025 to 2,617,016 (95% UI: 2,333,949 – 2,947,174) in 2050. For people aged 80+ years, 30-year prevalence is projected to increase by 111∙0% from 481,079 (95% UI: 448,799–515,286) in 2025 to 1,015,061 (95% UI: 917,670 – 1,125,036) in 2050. Breast cancer is projected to be the most prevalent cancer in Australia in 2050, followed by prostate, melanoma and colorectal cancer. For 30-year prevalence in 2050, 43∙9% of people (1,149,364; 95% UI: 1,103,165–1,238,377) are estimated to be living with cancer (cancers not yet cured) and requiring initial treatment or ongoing care.
Conclusion
A substantial increase in the number of people with a past cancer diagnosis in Australia is expected in 2025-2050, with over 1.1 million people expected to require active treatment or ongoing care in the year 2050. Expanding appropriate services to meet this increasing demand will be a key challenge for the Australian health system.